Does lockdown work? A spatial analysis of the spread and concentration of Covid-19 in Italy

Photo : Does lockdown work? A spatial analysis of the spread and concentration of Covid-19 in Italy

The spread of Covid-19 is a global concern, especially in the most developed countries where the rapid spread of the virus has taken governments by surprise. Adopting a spatial approach to this issue, we identify the spatial factors that help explain why some areas are hit harder than others, based on the Italian example (with the Lombardy region as the epicentre in Europe).

Our analysis combines an autoregressive spatial model and a bivariate spatial autocorrelation from a pool of data collected from the Italian provinces to propose a real-time analysis of the spread and concentration of the virus. The findings suggest that the most globally connected areas are also the worst hit, and that the implementation of a lockdown at the beginning of March 2020 was a crucial and effective approach to slowing the spread of the virus further.

The full paper.

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    Ludovic Jeanne Ludovic Jeanne is an Assistant Professor of Geopolitics. He joined EM Normandie in 2007. He has a PhD in human, economic and regional geography from the Université de Caen-Normandie, awarded in 2002. His thesis is entitled “le karaté à l'épreuve du monde : diffusion socio-spatiale d'une pratique corporelle : analyse comparative des formes de pratique en France et au Japon” (“karate: socio-spatial mapping of a physical activity: comparative analysis of forms of practice in France and Japan”). His research interests are geopolitical, geoeconomic (rare earths) and regional development issues. His research studies now focus on regional risk and spatial ergonomics, namely in relation to understanding “terrorist threats”, their social and political construction and their social and political effects in their geographical expressions.
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    Sebastien Bourdin Sébastien Bourdin is a Professor of Sustainable and Regional Development. He joined EM Normandie 2012. He has a PhD in geography from the Université de Rouen-Normandie, awarded in 2012. His thesis is on economic and regional development, and the evaluation of public policies. His research interests are the effectiveness of cohesion policy, economic integration in the European Union and the circular economy. His main research interests are the European Union with a specific interest in the countries of central and eastern Europe and France. He has been Deputy Dean of the faculty on the Caen campus since 2019.
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    Fabien Nadou Fabien Nadou is an Associate Professor of Regional Development and Regional Economy. He joined EM Normandie in 2014. He has a PhD in spatial and town planning from the Université Tours, awarded in 2013. His thesis is on the spatial planning of economic activities in urban areas in France, and examines the capacity for regional intermediation in regional coherence plans and planning documents. His research interests are regional intermediation, economic and regional development strategies and figures. He focuses on coordination and proximity relationships between stakeholders (public-public; public-private), driving forces of the regional economy, relationships of regions with the business innovation process and the strategic spatial planning of economic development.

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