Does lockdown work? A spatial analysis of the spread and concentration of Covid-19 in Italy

Photo : Does lockdown work? A spatial analysis of the spread and concentration of Covid-19 in Italy

The spread of Covid-19 is a global concern, especially in the most developed countries where the rapid spread of the virus has taken governments by surprise. Adopting a spatial approach to this issue, we identify the spatial factors that help explain why some areas are hit harder than others, based on the Italian example (with the Lombardy region as the epicentre in Europe).

Our analysis combines an autoregressive spatial model and a bivariate spatial autocorrelation from a pool of data collected from the Italian provinces to propose a real-time analysis of the spread and concentration of the virus. The findings suggest that the most globally connected areas are also the worst hit, and that the implementation of a lockdown at the beginning of March 2020 was a crucial and effective approach to slowing the spread of the virus further.

The research of Sébastien Bourdin, Ludovic Jeanne, Fabien Nadou and Gabriel Noiret !

Author(s)
  • Photo :

    Sebastien Bourdin Sébastien Bourdin is a Professor of Sustainable and Regional Development. He joined EM Normandie 2012. He has a PhD in geography from the Université de Rouen-Normandie, awarded in 2012. His thesis is on economic and regional development, and the evaluation of public policies. His research interests are the effectiveness of cohesion policy, economic integration in the European Union and the circular economy. His main research interests are the European Union with a specific interest in the countries of central and eastern Europe and France. He has been Deputy Dean of the faculty on the Caen campus since 2019.

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