Does lockdown work? A spatial analysis of the spread and concentration of Covid-19 in Italy

The spread of Covid-19 is a global concern, especially in the most developed countries where the rapid spread of the virus has taken governments by surprise. Adopting a spatial approach to this issue, we identify the spatial factors that help explain why some areas are hit harder than others, based on the Italian example (with the Lombardy region as the epicentre in Europe).

Our analysis combines an autoregressive spatial model and a bivariate spatial autocorrelation from a pool of data collected from the Italian provinces to propose a real-time analysis of the spread and concentration of the virus. The findings suggest that the most globally connected areas are also the worst hit, and that the implementation of a lockdown at the beginning of March 2020 was a crucial and effective approach to slowing the spread of the virus further.

The research of Sébastien Bourdin, Ludovic Jeanne, Fabien Nadou and Gabriel Noiret !


An article published on Euro Cities with the participation of Sebastien Bourdin. Dense settlement and intensive traffic with other centres are reasons why the Covid-19 pandemic hit cities particularly hard. Recent research has shown that other factors also play an important role, for example the quality of public services and the health system. “When the […]

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic incurs enormous challenges in public health and socioeconomic life globally. The high transmissibility, long incubation period, and existence of asymptomatic patients expose the ineffectiveness of traditional mitigation techniques (e.g., wearing masks, keeping physical distance, restricting long‐distance travels), furthermore, lead to the dilemma between halting the viral spread and maintaining economic growth for the government decision-makers.   As response, timely and accurate contact tracing […]